A while back, Angélica Duque, CEO of Kontroll, published a LinkedIn post challenging the long-standing belief that efficiency is the ultimate goal in logistics. She argued that in today’s volatile environment, resilience is more important than speed or cost savings.
For example, choosing the fastest or cheapest supply route could introduce more risks, because of geopolitical instability or supply chain disruptions. Instead, she said, true efficiency lies in balancing cost and risk and in having predictable and controlled operations. Even if this means that they are more expensive or slower.
Her post got me thinking about resilience and decision-making in volatile environments. These are topics that I am on a first-name basis with because of my personal experiences, my experience remotely managing a school and an NGO in Liberia (a country that is widely considered a challenging environment to work in) and my experience as a consultant working with businesses in emerging and developing markets.
I believe that decision-making in volatile environments requires a fundamentally different approach than in stable markets. Flexibility is key, as is agility, and with it, the ability to move forward regardless of the uncertainty. This kind of decision-making in volatile environments is a skillset in its own right and requires structure, clarity and adaptability.
How I do this
At my NGO, Mineke Foundation, for me, this means holding fast to a clearly defined goal, but not locking down the way or ways of getting there. This doesn’t always sit right with funders, especially if they have limited experience in emerging economies. Most would prefer a detailed plan with clearly marked milestones. I, however, think that the ability to pivot quickly and make adjustments as the world around you changes, is one of the biggest requirements of survival in an uncertain environment
But it’s about more than pivoting rapidly. It’s about balancing short-term survival with long-term sustainability. You need to know that the choices you make now will help get you where you eventually want to be. This deliberate approach helps ensure that you don’t just react, but that you’re doing your best to navigate uncertainty with purpose.
From my experience advising businesses and NGOs, I’ve seen time and time again that businesses and organisations that take a deliberate and measured approach to uncertainty - where they prioritise agility without losing strategic direction – stand the best chance of coming out ahead. Here are the key things I’ve distilled so far.
Step 1: Define the core priorities of your organisation
This is about knowing your non-negotiables: your mission, values and key operations. These priorities are the foundation that guides decisions and helps you ensure that decisions you take remain aligned with your core purpose.
Knowingwhich elements of your business or organisation should not be compromised helps you avoid pivoting too aggressively. AKA it keeps you from losing sight of your competitive advantage or mission when reacting to short term challenges.
It’s also about knowing where space exists for flexibility without jeopardising your core objectives.
And obviously, organisations that have built financial reserves and diversified their revenue streams before crises occur are better equipped to handle uncertainty.
For NGOs and nonprofits, this translates into the ability to diversify funding sources and monetise services rather than relying on only a few donors.
Step 2: Assess risks and trade-offs
By definition, making decisions in uncertain environments means acting with incomplete information. While you’d ideally base your choices on comprehensive data, uncertainty often requires strategic judgment calls that bring even more uncertainty. Because there’s no way to be sure the outcome will be what you wanted. So how do you approach decision-making in volatile environments when faced with incomplete information?
Here’s the approach that works for me:
- Identify the key variables that impact outcomes.
- Develop best-case, worst-case and most-likely scenarios.
- Create a robust strategy that holds up across all the scenarios
- Build flexibility into decisions so that you can pivot again if things change.
Step 3: Develop a resilient mindset among your team members
This is a big one for me.
Employees must be encouraged to embrace change rather than fear it. This means instilling a mindset of growth and continuous development in the organisation.
Two things are crucial to keeping people on board and avoiding feelings of stress: enough time for people to work on clearly defined growth areas and enough options for those who can’t grow (further). AKA not an up or out mindset.
Cross-training and internal development programmes are two ways to build adaptable teams that can handle transitions smoothly. Cross-training multiple employees in critical roles prevents dependency on any one individual.
- At Mineke Foundation, we work hard to make sure projects aren’t siloed off and actively look for ways to create synergy across projects. And when things are hectic, everyone pitches in to help. The same goes for our Damiefa School.
Even organisations without big budgets can establish mentorship programmes where senior staff develop junior employees as successors.
- Mineke Foundation runs various programmes for youth and we always try to create some volunteer or project assistant positions for a few of them. They get work experience and make some money and we get to build up a talent pool of people who share our values and mindset. However, having more unrestricted funding would help us do more.
A word about staff redundancies in high-turnover environments
High staff turnover can disrupt operations. This is especially the case when experienced staff members are poached by bigger organisations that can offer better salaries and benefits. My NGO has regularly lost talented employees to the UN or other well-funded organisations.
You can’t really avoid this, so it’s best to make the best of it.
In our case, we keep in touch with these people and are building a network of ambassadors for our organisation. We also invest a lot of time into building a strong culture and healthy and inclusive working environment, which partly compensates for the bigger paycheck people could get elsewhere.
The redundancies we’ve built into the organisation help us handle departures relatively well. It’s not ideal obviously, but it works relatively well for us.
Managing fear and uncertainty
When change does come, no matter how hard you’ve tried to build a growth mindset, there will still be fear and uncertainty. It’s the leader’s job to deal with this with empathy and clarity. And honesty.
Effective decision-making in volatile environments also relies on clear communication and shared understanding across the team.
- I’ve worked hard and continue to work hard on building a culture of transparency at Mineke Foundation and Damiefa School. When something isn’t possible, we explain why. We’re honest about challenges we face, for example with fundraising, about things that have gone wrong and about things we’re struggling with. Our team has full insight into these challenges, including all financial data, and we actively encourage team members to take ownership of solutions.
Having clear contingency plans also helps toreassure employees and stakeholders. Even it it means taking painful decisions. Sometimes, things go wrong. And sometimes, that means taking drastic measures.
An example
When enrolment was lagging at our Damiefa School, I invested a lot of time in identifying and going over our options with the team, including the worst case scenario of having to close down the school.
Together with the team, we drafted contingency plans with clear steps and milestones. We discussed options and backup plans. We talked about scenarios and what might work in each one. The team then got to work on the plans we agreed on. And nailed it. (We exceeded our enrolment targets).
Effective decision-making in volatile environments also relies on clear communication and shared understanding across the team.
Conclusion
At its core, uncertainty demands strong and adaptable leadership. As a leader, you’ll set the pace in the organisation and play a key role in establishing its culture. Leaders must be able to balance strategic focus with the ability to shift direction when necessary.
Strategic decision-making in uncertain times requires a balance of patience, adaptability and structured resilience. Organisations must develop frameworks that allow them to respond to shifting conditions without losing sight of their core priorities. These frameworks are the foundation of organisational resilience.
True resilience isn’t just about agility.
Resilient leadership is about creating conditions that allow your organisation to withstand shocks and recover stronger. It’s about doing your best to prepare for the unexpected. In environments where unpredictability is the norm, organisations that build redundancies – whether that’s in staffing, supply chains, or financial buffers - are far better positioned to withstand disruptions.
Circling back to the beginning, I fully agree with Angélica when she says that leaders must resist the temptation to optimise for short-term efficiency at the expense of long-term stability. While redundancy may seem counter-intuitive, it acts as insurance against volatility, ensuring that organisations can continue operating even when circumstances change unexpectedly.
In uncertain environments, redundancy doesn’t equal waste, but preparation.
And in my experience, it’s the businesses and organisations that build muscle for decision-making in volatile environments that emerge stronger over time.